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Backtesting XLK (Rolling 4s Strategy)

 Long Term XLK (Rolling 4s) Play

 

This is a breakdown of some back testing I did on playing XLK with a LEAP option. LEAP options are 1-2 year plays using the Excel pricing sheet created by Mark Monroe to select the strike price. 

 

Setup: Bought the EFT when the it bounced up off a key support/EMA (typically 50) and a bounce up as the EFT was up trending. 

 

Entries:

1.     March 8, 2019 Purchased XLK Call 

– Stock @ $69.95 

– Expiration Jan 15, 2021 

– $77 Strike @ $4.48 

– 10 Contracts 

– Total investment $4,480

2.     June 17, 2019 Purchased XLK Call 

– Stock @ $76.25

– Expiration Jan 15, 2021 

– $86 Strike @ $3.90 

– 10 Contracts 

– Total investments $3,900

3.     September 16, 2019 Purchased XLK Call 

– Stock @ $81.05 

– Expiration Jan 21, 2022 

– $91 Strike @ $6.25 

– 10 Contracts 

– Total investment $6,250

4.     December 31, 2019 Purchased XLK Call 

– Stock @ $91.40 

– Expiration Jan 21, 2022 

– $105 Strike @ $4.48 

– 10 Contracts 

– Total investment $4,480

5.     March 16, 2020 Purchased XLK Call 

– Stock @ $76.24 

– Expiration Jan 21 2022 

– $80 Strike @ $10.95 

– 10 Contracts 

– Total investment $10,950

 

 

 

 

Exits: 

Exited all of the 5 trades on the same day (August 19, 2020) before the market peaks. Just selected a time that I felt would have been a good time to sell. 

 

XLK @ $115.26

 

1.     Sold @ $34.00 - ROI 658% - Return $34,000 – Profit $29,520 – 17 month duration

2.     Sold @ $26.60 - ROI 582% - Return $26,600 – Profit $22,700 – 14 month duration

3.     Sold @ $29.55 - ROI 372% - Return $29,550 – Profit $23,300 – 11month duration

4.     Sold @ $15.52 - ROI 246% - Return $15,520 – Profit $11,040 – 8 month duration

5.     Sold @ $27.50 - ROI 151% - Return $27,500 – Profit $16,550 – 5 month duration

 

Summary:

This was 5 separate plays starting on March 8, 2019 and entered quarterly thru March 2020. All plays were exited on the same day in August 2020. 

 

The total investment on all the entries were roughly $30K for a total return of $133K. The profit is $103K which results in an overall ROI of 341%.

 


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The Emotional Trader

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